Monday, June 8, 2009

One-stop shopping for the Phillies?


Lately the papers and the broadcasts have been full of speculation about whether the Phillies will or should add a starting pitcher to their team now that Brett Myers is all but certainly out for the season. What gets a lot less mention is that the Phillies also are thin for righthanded hitting off the bench.

Well, what if the Phillies could get maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball and add a valuable, versatile righthanded bat in the process? I'm dreaming, right?

Another thing that's gotten a lot of coverage lately is that the Phillies' farm system is stronger than it's been in a while. Don't believe all the hype - from reviewing the stats for the position players at Lehigh Valley, Reading, Clearwater and Lakewood, beyond Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of strong offense in the Phillies system right now. There are a few others to keep an eye on, like Aussie third baseman Tim Kennelly and catcher Travis D'Arnaud, a catcher who hit for average last year and is hitting for power but not average this year. Beyond them, we've gotten glimpses of Lou Marson, John Mayberry Jr. and Jason Donald, but going by the numbers, there doesn't appear to be much else among position players.

In the area of young arms, as this past week's revelation in the form of Antonio Bastardo indicates, the picture is much brighter. Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery and Jason Knapp appear to be the big names, with plenty of depth, like Tyler Cloyd and Carlos Monasterios, behind them, particularly at Lakewood.

So should the Phillies just wait for some of these arms to arrive, ala J.A. Happ and Bastardo, and be content with what they can accomplish with what's on hand this year? I say no - this is the defending world champion and appears to be a team that with one or two additions could/should be one of the five or so teams most likely to win it all this year.

Based on the picture at the top of this post, you've probably guessed that I'm talking about trying to trade for Toronto's Roy Halladay, which has been an obsession of mine for quite a while. To be clear, the Blue Jays say their ace is not available. That does not prevent the Phillies from making Toronto an offer they'd want to consider.

Back in the '80s, the Mets badly wanted Gary Carter but the Expos kept saying "he's not available." The Mets just said "if the situation changes, let us know." Those of you who were around in the mid to late '80s know the rest.

I kind of like the fact that the Jays say Halladay is unavailable - that means the Phillies might be able to put in a bid that doesn't come in the midst of a bidding war. Let's say the Phillies offered Dominic Brown, Joe Savery, Tyler Cloyd with Kyle Kendrick and Jack Taschner as throw-ins. I believe the Jays would have to think about that - and so would the Phillies. They could give up one of their top two outfield prospects but not the other and they also could have a goal of trying (and likely failing) to keep Drabek and/or Knapp out of the deal.

But let's say Toronto is looking to let Vernon Wells move on in a few years - Dominic Brown might look very enticing to them. Likewise, getting 2-3 quality young arms, plus a couple of guys they could plug into their staff right now (Kendrick and Taschner) along with Brown - I think that would make the Jays think, even if they are very reluctant to think about parting with Halladay - as they should be.

To round out the deal - let's say it ends up Brown, Savery, Knapp, Kendrick and Taschner, the Phillies should ask the Jays to throw in Kevin Millar, who can play first base and the outfield and has a career OPS of .815 (although that is trending downward the last three years. Despite being on a decline, Millar still posted 20 homers, 72 rbis and 71 walks for a bad Orioles team last year and has been decently productive in a reserve role with Toronto this year. He'd bring the veteran righty bat the Phillies need to balance out their bench - and, oh yeah, he'd come attached with the most durable and productive starting pitcher in the game today, Halladay.

I'd pay the price in prospects outlined above, even though it's steep, because I believe the addition of Halladay would position the Phillies to be among the favorites to win it all for the next 3-4 years. They might become the New England Patriots of baseball if they could pull it off.

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