Looking Ahead to Phillies/Orioles

It's just about that weekend again, the one in which my two favorite teams, the Phillies and Orioles, play each other. When that happens, I'm 100% behind the Phillies, but I'm still happy for individual accomplishments by the O's.

Here's my take on the weekend's series:

Matchups:
Friday: Rich Hill vs. Antonio Bastardo
Saturday: Brad Bergesen vs. J.A. Happ
Sunday: Jeremy Guthrie vs. Cole Hamels

I know the basic view is that the Orioles are a terrible team and they do have a bad record, but they are a different kind of terrible (if there is such a thing) than say the Nationals or the Pirates.

For example, the Orioles lineup can be a terror. Given their lineup and the way the Phillies are pitching at home, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the O's put up a 10-spot in at least one of the games this weekend.

For one thing, the top of their order is close to perfectly constructed. Brian Roberts, who switch hits, is an ideal leadoff man, a gap hitter with a high on-base percentage who also can steal bases. Since the Phillies are throwing three lefties this weekend, we'll probably see the Orioles bat Nick Markakis 2nd and Adam Jones 3rd, which they often do against lefties. Against righties, Markakis usually bats third.

Jones has really come into his own this season, with his offensive game catching up to his speed and defense. He is a power and base-stealing threat. Markakis, I don't think anyone here needs to be told about him - he is a legitimate No. 3 hitter who hits for average and power with decent speed.

Aubrey Huff is doing a more than solid job in the cleanup spot, and so with Dave Trembley likely breaking up the lefty duo of Markakis and Huff for this series, I look for the top 4 to do a lot of damage.

The good news is that 5 hitter Melvin Mora is having a poor year and looks like he's on the way down, if not done. But they leave him in the five-hole to again break up the lefties. Former Astro Luke Scott, who usually DHs, is having a strong year batting sixth. The O's may be tempted to use him in left field this series, even though righty batting rookie Nolan Reimold is doing a nice job in left and hitting for solid power. Ty Wigginton also could figure into the LF/Third base picture. He's not having such a hot year.

Then comes rookie catcher Matt Wieters, the super prospect who got off to a very slow start with the batt since being called up. He's a switch hitter with the potential to be as good as Chipper Jones some day, and hit his first homer last night against the Mets. Hopefully, this does not mean he is ready to break out against major league pitching just yet. Look for veteran Gregg Zaun, also a switch-hitter, to catch one of the games - he's not much with the bat these days.

At shortstop, former Marlin Robert Andino is holding down the job with starter Cesar Izturis recovering from an appendectomy. Both are defense-first types.

The Phillies should be able to hit all of the Orioles starters this weekend, so it could be a high-scoring series. Hill, who I'm sure most of you remember from the Cubs, pitches a bit like Randy Wolf - a big slow curve and an average major league fastball. Bergesen is a control guy with average stuff, kind of like Kyle Kendrick, and Guthrie is a stuff guy who tends to underachieve, kind of like Brett Myers pre-2007.

In the bullpen, I think George Sherrill is a very shaky closer. But he's a lefty, which is an advantage against Ryan Howard. The rest of the 'pen is very inconsistent although Danys Baez is having a nice year (split-finger fastball) and Jim Johnson (power fastball) is doing a nice job in set-up.

I think the Phillies would do well to take 2 of 3 here. Consider the Orioles record partly a function of the division they play in - in most other divisions, I think they'd be a .500 team or better. If the O's top four run wild, it will be a long weekend. If the Phillies can contain those guys, then a decent weekend is possible.

One-stop shopping for the Phillies?

Lately the papers and the broadcasts have been full of speculation about whether the Phillies will or should add a starting pitcher to their team now that Brett Myers is all but certainly out for the season. What gets a lot less mention is that the Phillies also are thin for righthanded hitting off the bench.

Well, what if the Phillies could get maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball and add a valuable, versatile righthanded bat in the process? I'm dreaming, right?

Another thing that's gotten a lot of coverage lately is that the Phillies' farm system is stronger than it's been in a while. Don't believe all the hype - from reviewing the stats for the position players at Lehigh Valley, Reading, Clearwater and Lakewood, beyond Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of strong offense in the Phillies system right now. There are a few others to keep an eye on, like Aussie third baseman Tim Kennelly and catcher Travis D'Arnaud, a catcher who hit for average last year and is hitting for power but not average this year. Beyond them, we've gotten glimpses of Lou Marson, John Mayberry Jr. and Jason Donald, but going by the numbers, there doesn't appear to be much else among position players.

In the area of young arms, as this past week's revelation in the form of Antonio Bastardo indicates, the picture is much brighter. Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery and Jason Knapp appear to be the big names, with plenty of depth, like Tyler Cloyd and Carlos Monasterios, behind them, particularly at Lakewood.

So should the Phillies just wait for some of these arms to arrive, ala J.A. Happ and Bastardo, and be content with what they can accomplish with what's on hand this year? I say no - this is the defending world champion and appears to be a team that with one or two additions could/should be one of the five or so teams most likely to win it all this year.

Based on the picture at the top of this post, you've probably guessed that I'm talking about trying to trade for Toronto's Roy Halladay, which has been an obsession of mine for quite a while. To be clear, the Blue Jays say their ace is not available. That does not prevent the Phillies from making Toronto an offer they'd want to consider.

Back in the '80s, the Mets badly wanted Gary Carter but the Expos kept saying "he's not available." The Mets just said "if the situation changes, let us know." Those of you who were around in the mid to late '80s know the rest.

I kind of like the fact that the Jays say Halladay is unavailable - that means the Phillies might be able to put in a bid that doesn't come in the midst of a bidding war. Let's say the Phillies offered Dominic Brown, Joe Savery, Tyler Cloyd with Kyle Kendrick and Jack Taschner as throw-ins. I believe the Jays would have to think about that - and so would the Phillies. They could give up one of their top two outfield prospects but not the other and they also could have a goal of trying (and likely failing) to keep Drabek and/or Knapp out of the deal.

But let's say Toronto is looking to let Vernon Wells move on in a few years - Dominic Brown might look very enticing to them. Likewise, getting 2-3 quality young arms, plus a couple of guys they could plug into their staff right now (Kendrick and Taschner) along with Brown - I think that would make the Jays think, even if they are very reluctant to think about parting with Halladay - as they should be.

To round out the deal - let's say it ends up Brown, Savery, Knapp, Kendrick and Taschner, the Phillies should ask the Jays to throw in Kevin Millar, who can play first base and the outfield and has a career OPS of .815 (although that is trending downward the last three years. Despite being on a decline, Millar still posted 20 homers, 72 rbis and 71 walks for a bad Orioles team last year and has been decently productive in a reserve role with Toronto this year. He'd bring the veteran righty bat the Phillies need to balance out their bench - and, oh yeah, he'd come attached with the most durable and productive starting pitcher in the game today, Halladay.

I'd pay the price in prospects outlined above, even though it's steep, because I believe the addition of Halladay would position the Phillies to be among the favorites to win it all for the next 3-4 years. They might become the New England Patriots of baseball if they could pull it off.

Please vote, early and often, for Raul Ibanez

I just filled out my first all-star ballot of the year at the Orioles/Blue Jays game on Monday and I just wanted to note that I voted for Raul Ibanez for outfield in the National League. Not only is Ibanez having an MVP-caliber year for the Phillies, but he also has never played in the All Star game despite four previous 100-rbi seasons. So please do what you can to make sure Ibanez gets his due this season.

In another note, apparently the Orioles are finally calling up Matt Wieters from triple-A Norfolk to make his major league debut at home this Friday against the Tigers. That is good news for Orioles fans, but not for Greg Zaun, who now will see his playing time diminish dramatically. I noticed on Monday that Zaun uses Rush's "Limelight" as his theme music when he comes to bat. Since the O's were playing the Jays, I found myself wondering if die-hard Blue Jays fan and season ticker holder Geddy Lee might have been watching on Rogers SportsNet and noticed the same.

Anyway, for what it's worth, here's my all star ballot for 2009 (with admittedly a couple of homer picks):

National League
C - Russell Martin
1b - Ryan Howard
2b - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins (what can I say, he's my favorite player)
3b - Ryan Zimmerman
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Raul Ibanez
OF - Jay Bruce

I also voted for Howard, Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman to represent the NL in the home run hitting contest. In the AL, I voted for Josh Hamilton and ... well I forget who my other two votes were there.

American League
C - Joe Mauer
1b - Justin Morneau
2b - Brian Roberts
SS - Marco Scutaro (look at the numbers if this surprises you)
3b - Evan Longoria
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Adam Jones
OF - Carl Crawford

Down goes Hamels?

It looked like the old Cole Hamels was back today, pitching against the Brewers in a "businessperson's special" at Citizens Bank Park. Through the first three innings, he shut out the Brewers on one hit, while striking out six and reportedly hitting 91 mph on the radar gun.
Then, in the 4th, after surrendering a 2-run homer to red-hot Ryan Braun (the Phillies' starter now has given up a home run in all 14 games this season), Hamels took a line drive from Brewers' first baseman Prince Fielder off his left arm.
I am at work and cannot see the game, but reports I've read say that the ball did not hit Hamels' shoulder or elbow, but the fleshier part of the upper arm. The Phillies immediately removed Hamels from the game, hopefully as a precautionary measure. If that's all it is, and I hope so, the Phillies made the right call as taking a line drive from Fielder must be a world of hurt, and the Phillies don't need Hamels messing up his motion by trying to pitch thru pain.
J.A. Happ is on in long relief and I'll suspect he'll do just fine - if the Phillies' bats wake up, maybe they can even come back and take this game. But the bigger concern is Hamels' health and how many starts, if any, he might miss.

Elijah Dukes: The next big thing?

One of my favorite parts of being a baseball fan is discovering a new player to follow. Not that Elijah Dukes, the Washington Nationals centerfielder, is all that new but I think he is poised to reach a different level this season - that level being stardom.

He hit home runs in each game of the Phillies recently concluded two-game split with the Nats in Washington. Last night's game, an 8-2 Nats win, wasn't much fun from the perspective of a Phillies fan, but I did enjoy watching Dukes' majestic home run in the 8th inning. Off the bat, I thought he had hit it onto the concourse if not farther - it actually landed in the Phillies bullpen. Too much loft I suppose, but it was still an impressive power display.

But not as impressive as what Dukes did Monday, when he reached down for a low and outside Clay Condrey slider and pretty much flicked it over the left field fence, mostly with the strength of his front arm and hand. That was one of the most remarkable feats I've ever seen in a baseball game. Elijah Dukes just brims with talent in all areas of the game - hitting, power, plate discipline, defense, running, throwing.

Right now, Ryan Zimmerman is the face of the Nationals to a point, and maybe Adam Dunn will be for a year or two. But longer-term, I think Dukes will be the player to put the Nationals in the spotlight - he's an Evgeni Malkin, LeBron James, LaDainian Tomlinson kind of talent for baseball, maybe the next Junior Griffey.

I'm heading out to Nationals Stadium again on Saturday and with the Phillies not the opponent this time, I'm planning to give a lot of focus to Elijah Dukes as he and his teammates take on the Florida Marlins.